The Miracle on the Hudson, a NEW perspective! - Mentour Pilot

Mentour Pilot

410 миӊ. көрүүлөр45

    Support my work on Mentour Pilot 👉🏻 www.patreon.com/mentourpilot
    Today it is exactly 12 years since the "Miracle on the Hudson", US Airways flight 1549 encountered the most famous birdstrike of all time which led to two, catastrophic, engine failures and a successful ditching on the Hudson River outside New York, USA.
    The incredible work by captain Chesley Sullenberger and Jeffery Skiles as well as the heroic work of their cabin crew and first responders led to the successful outcome. But were there mistakes made along the way? In this video I will be telling the story of flight 1549 based on the final report. I will also give you a pilots perspective on what went on in the cockpit during that winter afternoon in 2009.
    00:00 Introduction
    00:49 Patreon Homage
    01:18 Overview
    03:51 Info on Jeff Skiles
    05:25 Takeoff
    06:25 Birdstrike
    08:10 Crew initial handling
    11:14 Decision Making
    16:30 Cabin Crew
    19:35 Ditching imminent
    22:47 Ditching
    25:28 Conclusion
    28:38 Full uninterrupted flight simulation
    34:22 End-game
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    Below you will find the links to videos and sources used in this episode. Enjoy checking them out!
    Mediawatchersoz: Surveillance footage of Cactus 1549 landing in the Hudson
    kgup.info/get/e4CFi5bVZaqeoos/video
    Manhattan Image: @jacobybrandon
    Passenger on wing image: @Steven Day/AP
    Waterway boat image: @Steven Day/AP
    ATC Audio: @ AppleDualG5
    kgup.info/get/qo13loaZa3l3lKU/video
    CCTV Footage: @ MediaWatcherOz
    NTSB report: www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Reports/AAR1003.pdf

    күнү жарыяланды 4 ай мурун

    Жорумдар

    1. imaner76 Simulation Gaming

      Initially I thought, oh this one again, how many takes on this have there been. Then I sat glued to the whole thing. Fantastic work, great perspective. Awesome job.

      1. David Graham

        Great video thank you. Length 34m58m ; time, strike to "landing", just 3m13s. The sheer professionalism of the flight crew, cabin staff, all others involved. just amazing.

      2. jp katz

        @Winston Smith Is that the geese that went into the engines or the geese that survived or both?

      3. north wiebesick

        @Mentour Pilot so, not being a pilot, or in any way related to the aviation industry, as well as never having been on a plane before, the only conclusion I can make from the audio I have heard here and elsewhere, is that Sully and his copilot had balls of brass, nerves of steel, a lucky rabbits foot on any (and probably all) of their keychains, a horseshoe in at least 1 or 2 pockets, and the obligatory salt or whatever, to throw over your shoulder to keep away bad luck... I definitely thought, after hearing the audio from many sources, which is technically the same source, that anyone else in Sully's place, would have probably not have had the same success in that maneuver, and that he is a pilot who did his job "to the last breath" you might say... I wonder, aside from what's in the video here, what your actual assessment of his actions are, though... for instance, I don't think you said if you would have done anything different, or if he made any mistakes... The one thing you made sound close to a mistake, you mentioned, although you never said it was a mistake, something about flaps 2 vs flaps 3... One thing that I wonder though, is whether anyone has done any animations or models as to what would likely happen if he did for instance, go to flaps 3, as you called it??? Or any other models about the other parts of the flight that could have altered the trajectory of the flight, and possibly the outcome??? I hear so many options being given, but no one says or shows definitive model or animation evidence, that would rule out anything else from working, aside from a few aviation style satellite imagery bits like you showed, with certain airports highlighted... I myself believe, as I inferred earlier, that he indeed make the right decision to go down on the hudson river, but it would be interesting, in my opinion, to see where all these alternate paths he could have taken, would have led, in a visual format, even though we know the likely outcome of anything other than the hudson...

      4. imaner76 Simulation Gaming

        @Eejit I have no idea what you are talking about. Your unfounded and unwarranted finger pointing at me won't change the fact that within aviation this story has been gone over many times, a fresh take on that is an ever narrowing gap. Mentor has judged that gap and slipped right in there.

      5. Dami Ete

        sir mentour ...lot of us are just engineers feeling jealous of the white dres

    2. Chris Turner

      ok whats messed up is the only thing sully isn't 100% more sure about anything in his life in for the entire day is if hes 1549, 1529 or some other 15 ending in 9

    3. MoiraPettifr712

      What have they done about getting rid of geese around airports? Can this be done?

    4. twoisone599

      Not a pilot but I like these videos. I'm a ham operator so the radio aspect is interesting. Great work!

    5. Alejandro Kedeni

      Amazing!!

    6. Nota Hero

      Sully NEVER mentions that the plane landed itself on the Hudson NOT him and he takes all the credit like he did it, the software in the plane landed it not sully he was mostly along for the ride duh.... he did admit in one interview that they most likely would have all crashed and died if the SOFTWARE did not work and HE HIMSELF had to land it by hand, again DUHHHH.

    7. LG-ENGE Engenharia

      Have you did a video about the AirFrance from Rio de Janeiro to Paris?

      1. Speedbird

        That would be Air France Flight 447, dont think he has🤔

    8. Michael Superbacker

      Wow the events in this situation happened so quickly! This truly is an example of “aviate, navigate, communicate"

    9. Linda Maskus

      Sully also had experience on gliders which helped!

    10. Harvey tyler

      As much as this was Sully, it was also the aircraft, a Airbus model A320, a fine aircraft that in my opinion also made this possible

    11. mntbighker

      I'm curious if any noise abatement practices are partially responsible here. Many airports in metro areas require less than full thrust as soon as possible to reduce noise, but also extend the time spent closer to the ground. I'm not sure that's really a question that gets asked. "You don't get to question our noise abatement policies, and if you hit birds that's your problem". Just wondering.

    12. Matthew Morycinski

      He says "up to 8 pounds" and I think "Especially when they are gorged like these in Vancouver"

    13. Echo Pine

      Maybe a dumb question but... why don't planes have horns? I've seen/heard of so many planes that have to make emergency landings on roadways or waterways and most of the time they land without hitting anyone on the ground. However I feel that with a horn, the pilots can ensure every one one the ground is aware of the plane coming at them. Without engines, the plane would be silent....

    14. Richard Cranium

      ATC “All of our runways are open. Pick one.” Sully “ What about we won’t make it do you not understand? Here, hold my drink.”

    15. Per Perald

      Air traffic control ased him to turn around, but he continued ahead, he was only one minute into the flight, and turning right away would have landed him at La Guardia after two minutes from that point, at the latest. Sullenberger didn't listen, he is no hero.

    16. Robert Jennings

      The a320 in question had only one engine to fly a short flight to maintenance base. Other could not produce 30pct. Mention that.

    17. Ionel Ene

      Great pilots and only their skills and determination saved the passengers. Still not many people know that in 1980 a Tarom pilot land in Atlantic Ocean near Mauritania a Tupolev saving the life of 186 plus the cabin crew. This great story was hide by the Communist regim at that time and like this not many people knew about the Atlantic Ocean miracle. The name of the pilot is Paul Mitu. An excellent pilot like all Tarom pilots

    18. Music4TheSoul

      The most amazing part of this whole thing, is the computers that control the plane, didn't try to wreck the plane as is very common on Scarebus Planes.

    19. Adrian Gravelle

      Amazing Pilots

    20. G.williams Williams

      Great video. Very well explained. Thank you.

    21. Jounas123

      Really amazes me how the pilots and ATC are able to remain so calm, even in a potentially fatal emergency like this.

    22. Mike Evans

      They use real birds for certification purposes wow don't let the liberals know that. ✈️🆘👍

      1. Speedbird

        Real dead bird mind you😉

    23. Paul Brouyere

      Why don’t they install monitoring cameras with an overview of engines, tail and wings? Too often pilots are not aware which condition their aircraft is in and visual confirmation tells more than instruments alone

    24. Tatiana Melendez

      Am I the only one who thinks that "bird strike" sounds like a sex act? 🤔

      1. Speedbird

        Probably😆

    25. AaronShenghao

      FAA: yeah yeah our fault again... boys back to come up with new rules.

    26. Karen W

      This was amazing, especially the simulation at the end. Had me on the edge of my seat. It really shows how quickly things happened on that day. Brilliant work. 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👍. (Both the pilots and the work you did in making this video. )

    27. K T

      Thank you for your videos sir. I have an simple question for you if you can explain me, why airlines they don’t just install an camera somewhere so they can check the condition of the engines from the cockpit? Thanks in advance

    28. scarab1518

      The crew did an incredible job here and that's unquestionable, but i wonder since they had the APU on why they didn't try to use it to start the engines???

      1. Speedbird

        They did..

    29. Bertie Pimplebum

      I believe many flights are unnecessary. Shakespeare said: 'The happiest place is at home.' So, off you go...and where you go, are you truly having a better time than you could at home!

    30. Bob B.

      Good thing terra dactyls don't fly

    31. Willy Wonka

      As an ignorant non-pilot I gotta ask. Why isn't there a computer on board (a smart phone) constantly computing the best landing opportunity AT ALL TIMES. After all Google Navigation does it when I miss an exit. My guess, it would have offered Sully the Teterboro option with time and altitude to spare. Shouldn't there be an app for that? or a Garmin feature?

    32. Kent Olinger

      THIS SHOULD SURPRISE no one. After all, Capt. Sullenberger is a Boilermaker. Hail, Hail to Old Purdue!

    33. Terry C

      Back in my glider flying days, i got caught downwind from the airfield we were flying from. Error #1. I then hit sinking air when I was heading back to the airfield. Threat #1. By the time I was on final (pretty much a straight-in) approach, I knew I wasn’t going to make the field based on where my aiming point was relative to the grass strip. I looked around for other suitable fields for an off field landing and found none as a was surrounded by ploughed farmer fields. I had no options but to land at that grass strip. My only option was ground effect to get there! I immediately shoved the nose down, converted all altitude to airspeed, flared a foot off the ground at max airspeed. Flying in ground effect now, I was covering ground nicely but also slowly bleeding speed. I pulled back ever slowly sacrificing every inch of height for speed. I was just a few knots above stall and used remaining energy to climb a fence by the edge of the strip. I touched down, rolled about 20 feet and came to a stop. I was 19 years with around 150 flights in gliders. This is my Miracle on the Hudson story.

    34. Mark Gardner

      I still remember when this happened and what came out in the news. If they had more time, perhaps they could have configured for ditching by at least hitting the ditching button, but all survived and the pilots are to be commended for their actions. I would have flown anywhere with Sully!

    35. Connie Mazur

      One minor advice ... @ 1:53 ... the official US Airways (USA) callsign was 'US AIR', whilst 'CACTUS' was the callsign of former America West Airlines (AWE), which merged with USA in 2007, but the AWE fleet kept using their old callsign.

    36. Tser

      Air Traffic Control always impresses me also. What a high pressure job with so many lives on the line. The addition of tweety bird sounds in the audio made me laugh despite the seriousness of the incident, since that's definitely not something that would be heard and geese don't sound like that.

    37. kirky org

      if i had a choice of pilots on my airliner flight i would pick Sully for one seat and the other would go to the guy for air Transat flight 236 Toronto to Lisbon Portugal Capt Robert Piche' who flew his jet full of people for almost half an hour with no engine i just cant imagine being in a big jet with no engine sounds at 30k feet but he got it down in one piece take these 2 guys any day of the week nerves of steel great explanation of the situation well done

    38. Brian 't Hart

      Was the blackbox for this flight ever released? It seems only the ATC recording was released right?

      1. Speedbird

        No, prohibited by US law

    39. Cadenthecapybara

      At least one passenger got on that airplane, saw the infant, and thought "ugh a baby on the plane, this is the WORST thing that could happen."

    40. Qiqe

      Absolutely insane the way Sully performed on such a stressful situation. Everyone who have ever flu an aircraft knows how extraordinary this was

    41. Shannon Parker

      That last simulated bit was amazing. It happened SO quickly!

    42. Winston Smith

      Sounds like ATC was calling them Cactus 1529 the whole time.

      1. Speedbird

        Cactus actually gave an incorrect callsign first.

    43. Weihaiblue

      Its an emotional ride for sure. He had those geese's gods under those wings.

    44. Ken Ross

      You are an excellent teacher!

    45. Melissa Johnson

      I don't think that general public realizes the magnitude of the "birds" I know people that really thought it was like a flock of Robin's and couldn't belive that those "birds" could take down a plane and just gave them more reason not to fly...🙄. I was like no...not robins..Geese...they flew through a flock of Canadian geese that weigh like 10 lbs each...

    46. Nazar Bonchevskyi

      This man is a fuckin legend

    47. G̵̀̂a̴̅͂ȓ̸͆l̴̔̎i̷̱͗c̷̀̾

      Jesus I actually learnt something new from a 1549 video! Didn't know that they had planes with over water equipment and ones without. Gotta love how you go into detail about everything, from the weight of the birds and such. Just all round an amazing and informative vid

      1. Mentour Pilot

        Thank you!

    48. Jaclyn Giancamillo

      What is the apu?

    49. Alicia Rodriguez

      How do I ensure all my upcoming flights are with this crew? Really an amazing job and the fact that there was no boats or anything in their way is another miracle. And the recordings-they were eerily calm! Thanks, for posting.💕

    50. War Hog09

      I personally think that ,with how crucial the emergency water equipment that the aircraft was equipped with, was in this incident, despite not being required to carry, would have resulted in similar equipment to be included in every flight. Regardless of if it is scheduled to go over large bodies of water or not. Because, I believe a water landing, that is performed properly, is safer than a potential landing in a forest or over other terrain. Making all rivers and lakes being safer choices for all pilots to perform emergency ditching.

    51. Jesse 1437

      4 minutes to sort all that out. Knowing almost instantly that you may be dead in a few minutes. Some people cannot sort out what tie or high heel to wear in 4 minutes. NTSB after incident recommendations: 1. Have Sullenberger fly all aircraft, all flights, all the time. 2.... 3.... 4.... 5.... 6.... 7.... 8.... 9.... 10... 11... 12... 13... 14... 15... 16... 17... 18... 19... 20... 21... 22... 23... 24... 25... 26... 27... 28... 29... 30...See recommendation one.

    52. Michael R Murphy

      Canada geese are large heavy birds. And the New York-New Jersey area are on a north-south flyway for migrating birds. I was in a park like place in New Jersey years ago. Canada geese were all over the place and the grass was full of goose dirt!

    53. Peter Jerde

      As much as it's a great feeling to identify these two wonderful pilots as the heroes they are, I get an even greater feeling of wellbeing knowing that decades of experience from previous accidents lead to good training which contributed to this wonderful outcome. I really like your analysis, here, of all the factors at play, here!

    54. Von Damn

      Pls do a reaction and explanation about "the flight" crash scene I'm very curious about how realistic it is

    55. Joseph J

      I never tire of seeing explanations about this miracle. The captain had full control and was confident in his decision. He made the correct choice and thank goodness he did. Well done. 👍

    56. BlackDragonWhiteHawk

      Press F for the 70 000 dead geese that where killed in the aftermath since then (wikipedia standing 2017) I think this number is verry verry sad.

    57. K

      This is absolutely amazing! Calling this a miracle is so fitting. The video was great, the actual event was by far greater and God's mercy was the greatest! Thank you Lord Jesus for using incredible men who had incredible training and experience to save themselves, the passengers, crew and the people on the ground. You could spend all day giving credit to everyone involved and that wouldn’t be enough praise, but I also wanted to give a shout out the One who deserves the most praise, and that is God. Thanks for the video and the perspective!

      1. Speedbird

        So Lord Jesus stopped the engines huh?🤔

    58. laurelnoel732

      Did you ever do a ĺookback at the Russian flight that crashed because children were allowed to fly the plane???

    59. Dion Lindsay

      I hope that the intensive questioning after the event has at least had the effect of allowing Captain Sullenberger to draw a line under it for his own health and happiness.

      1. Dion Lindsay

        @Speedbird Yep, I was referring to the reality.

      2. Speedbird

        Movie and reality is not the same.

    60. arturo de los angeles

      how do you coup with so many different recommendations and advices? It is overwhelming all the different cases and possibilities, even with manuals, there is very little time in a situation like that

    61. 2buxaslice

      I'm surprised there aren't more bird strikes while flying. It just seems like something that would happen all the time.

    62. Hat Hatley

      They say to err is human, yet the actions of these professionals was so superb it seems to prove they were more than human. It is so inspiring it gave me an amazing emotional rush.

    63. Mona Jayne

      I think it's really easy for a bunch of armchair pilots to sit around saying what should or shouldn't have been done. Is it possible there was an alternate ending if everything lined up in a perfect world? Sure. But they had about 5 minutes for all of this to happen all while trying to fly the plane and not knowing with 100% certainty how many miles that plan would stay clear of skyscrapers and other buildings. If the pilots had reasonable certainty that they could safely put the plane down in the river and have life rafts, the odds are better there than crashing into a building short of a runway.

    64. Dave Wilson

      Very in-depth review, love these and love you telling them. Thanks so much for posting, this series you do is exceptional. Please keep it up!!

    65. Don Leonard

      Another fantastic video. I confess, when watching and reading all the press coverage from the NTSB report (and of course the Sully movie), my dinky Private Pilot brain wondered why a pilot wouldn't immediately break for a runway when there was a chance the aircraft would not be flyable. Your explanation was the most convincing one I've heard to date. One question: I gather you're a Boeing guy, mostly. I'm wondering what consensus is within the aviation community of all the computer decisions being taken in the Airbus, like not giving Sully full control over the flare during landing because of the power management mode it was in. I've heard Boeing crews talk trash about Airbus computers for being too invasive and inflexible during emergencies. I wonder if there is truth to that. Is this an aircraft design/philosophy issue, or is this an inevitable consequence of automation in the cockpit? Thanks again! Don Columbus, Ohio

    66. Trump-a-Tron 6000

      Amazing video

    67. LAK770

      It would have taken me longer to shit my pants than it took them to pull together this masterpiece of a landing

    68. Odωn

      He landed WITH the current of the river.!

    69. Daniel Filippus

      one interesting note about this is that the control tower guy was the last person to know everyone was safe after the accident. he soon went into a chock after the radio lady said "Going down" and he was relieved from his post by his manager to go into a separate room where he could calm down. He was sure everyone was dead on that plane because landing a plane of that size on the water always means loss of many lives. When news broke that everyone was Ok they had forgotten about him sitting by himself in that room just feeling miserable. Finally when he came out he was in for the best news of his life.

    70. K

      Sully and Captain Pearson (Gimli Glider) are amazon. I could listen to them tell their stories everyday for the rest of my life and never get bored.

    71. John C

      Thanks for this very informative presentation. I have a question. I'm kind of surprised that a 2 engine failure soon after takeoff would not have been a more thoroughly analyzed scenario before this incident. I have watched a lot of air accident documentaries and sometimes I scratch my head and wonder why certain scenarios weren't thought of before an accident occurred. I know that hindsight is 20/20. But as a person who has never flown a plane, I would think that a 2 engine failure would have been an obvious possibility, and that there would have been more vigorous training for such a possibility BEFORE the miracle on the Hudson. Am I missing something here? Just plain logic says that ANYTHING can happen while flying a plane. Right? While unlikely, 2 engines could fail for any reason, right after takeoff. Another example was a horrible accident where an airplane took off on the wrong runway at night. There was low visibility and there was construction equipment parked on the "closed runway" that the pilot didn't see until it was too late. Why hadn't someone had the presence of mind to simply put some pilons on the closed runway, at the entrance to the runway, alerting any errant pilot that the runway was closed? That seems to be an obvious no-brainer. Again, I'm not an expert, but I'm just talking about common sense here.

      1. Mentour Pilot

        Yes, prior to these accidents the thought was that jet engines are SO reliable that two of them failing at the same time, just after takeoff as highly unlikely, It was practiced at high altitude as previous multiple engine failures had occurred due volcanic ash but not close to the ground. Of course, now we know that multiple bird strikes can cause this so now otra being practiced.

    72. Lee Marie

      ATC: "Okay, what do you need to land?" Engines preferably.

    73. Trevor J O'Neill

      unreal

    74. Elizabeth Ann ferrario

      Hi Petter , wonderful pilot , amazing skill .everyone safe ! marvellous, outcome, captain sully well done sir ! i watched the discovery channel and his and his co pilot response was fantastic, from all the crew , did captain sully fly again , ?

      1. Mentour Pilot

        Yes he did, as far as I know

    75. Timothy Nathan

      I think why a pilots instinct to not immediately turn around may be because you know there is a possibility that a runway couldn’t be cleared in time. It would be a leap of faith to immediately turn around and hope you’d be clear

      1. Speedbird

        Thats incorrect..the runway will be cleared pretty quick in an emergency event.

    76. Lucy Wells

      Basically sully would rather land in the water than take any risk (no matter how small) than crashing on the way to teterbro.

    77. EQ Eileen Quenin

      Amazing job breaking down and providing expert commentary on this incident. Informative and truly a gripping story.

    78. Azir's Journey to Diamond

      I am very surprised by how everyone kept their cool... : Where u wanna land? Here? : Unable. : There? : Sure. : Confirm, there? : Unable. : Where then? : Hudson. : Hudson. : Hudson?! : Yea, Hudson.

    79. DNA3e8

      What is apu?

    80. Marcia Stansberry

      Boy, I remember that well.

    81. Hans Øyvind Lunde

      Very facinating and hartening to watch. Just a quick question: Why would it matter at all for the ATC to know which engine was not functioning?

      1. Hans Øyvind Lunde

        Yes that make sence

      2. Speedbird

        Yes..important when it comes to turning if you are flying with one engine.

    82. Brian Romine

      Thank you for the CVR audio.

      1. Speedbird

        Its actually the ATC transmission, not the CVR😉

    83. chase evans

      The kindly replace finally admire because imprisonment mostly reply from a grubby gruesome pair. soft, lumpy methane

    84. M M

      All comments say.." They did a fantastic job" NO SHIT. HE LANDED A JUMBO JET IN A RIVER!

    85. MariS

      Remember this incident clearly. This was a superb flight crew. Amazing how they saved everyone on that short flight.

    86. Lewis

      This whole thing gives me an incredible amount confidence in and respect for the pilots flying commercial aircraft. It also gives me another reason to dislike geese.

    87. Deep Roots Lawnscapes

      I was on this flight. Thankful to be here today be at of the good Lord and a great crew!

      1. Agustín Barquero

        Thank the crew only

      2. Don'tSpikeMyDrink

        just thank the crew lol

    88. Ole Romer

      Very exciting. The lack of so called background music, is fantastic. It's everywhere, and abotutely unnessesery. I love it.

      1. Don'tSpikeMyDrink

        indeed, nice for non ceash videos but not for these

    89. Tracy Smith

      Thanks for this. I remember watching the coverage on TV when it happened.

    90. robert damico

      Sports figures make millions of dollars for playing a game and at times are called heroes. What Captain Sully did is truly a hero and not only did he make the right decision, he also made a perfect approach in a very tense and stressful condition, and most importantly, not a single life was lost! That is the true meaning of a hero, not playing a game!

    91. CC California

      It was disgusting that US AIRWAYS tried to say Captain Sullenberger was at fault for landing the Jet in the Hudson River!! He saved everyone's life on 1549 flight!! He was a Hero!!👍👏

      1. Mike

        They didn’t. The movie isn’t accurate.

      2. Don'tSpikeMyDrink

        my god, that is suing someone for breaking your chestbone for cpr...

    92. giamoclimb

      Ok.. so one day pilots will rule the world, that's it

    93. Alex Baron

      I still remember the day this happened, we were glued to the TV at work watching the pictures of passengers standing on the wings. Spectacular airmanship

    94. Luigi Long

      As always, excellent!

    95. Marc Thompson

      That was awesome!!

    96. Cobra Kai

      Nice take on this one - I'm starting to go down the rabbit hole on your other videos too :) My only question is, am I seeing it correctly that the simulator didn't show the GW bridge that Sully had to clear in order to safely land in the river? Or are certain landmarks not included in the simulations? Also I know others have said this but Canada geese (especially males) can weight around15 lbs - they do nothing all year except eat and poop near local ponds, then decide to migrate south at the worst possible moment (i.e. as planes are taking off).

    97. Kris Wallace

      How much thrust does an APU provide? Some is better than none i get that just curious.

      1. Speedbird

        The APU gives no measurable thrust.

    98. Andrew

      @mentour you mentioned that now the industry has you train for this in such low altitude. Besides turning the APU on, can you tell us what specifically they have you train on?

    99. Mobile McSmarty

      if you call it a miracle, it's because Sully and crew were gods

    100. sean vw

      What's the probability of over-cooking (under-cooking? did it reach the grill?) two Canada geese whilst flying with two engines? or 3 geese with 3 engines...etc. I mean really, scientifically, math modelling, someone could work this out given flight frequency/paths and bird flows (local/migratory)? Or simply reference historical data on bird strikes...how often does a completely avian=induced (not inflight chicken sandwiches) complete power-outage happen?